860 
 WTPA42 PHFO 042035
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
 1100 AM HST MON AUG 04 2014
  
 GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SHEARED APPEARANCE WITH MOST OF 
 THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 
 SYSTEM/S CIRCULATION. THE LATEST FIXES FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC  
 INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE 
 DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST AMSU...SSMI 
 AND GPM PASSES. THE CURRENT INTENSITIES CAME IN AT 25 KT FROM SAB 
 AND JTWC...AND 30 KT FROM PHFO. ADT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN 
 FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 31 AND 33 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE 
 ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.
 
 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GENEVIEVE IS THE MAIN STEERING 
 INFLUENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE DATELINE 
 HAS RESULTED IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 
 HOURS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED AND 
 SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH DAY 3...THEN A 
 NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY 
 FOLLOWS THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS 
 FORECAST. 
 
 GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ AND IS 
 GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION. 
 SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT GENEVIEVE BUT IS EXPECTED 
 TO EASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE BEEN 
 FORECASTING ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AT VARYING RATES. THE FORECAST 
 MIRRORS THIS TREND AND CALLS FOR GENEVIEVE TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
 STORM IN 24 HOURS...AND A TYPHOON IN THE VICINITY OF WAKE ISLAND AT 
 DAY 5.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/2100Z 10.0N 167.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 10.6N 169.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 11.6N 172.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 12.6N 175.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 13.5N 178.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 15.1N 176.3E   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  08/1800Z 17.0N 172.0E   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  09/1800Z 19.5N 169.0E   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA