862 
 WTPA42 PHFO 040843
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
 1100 PM HST SUN AUG 03 2014
  
 GENEVIEVE PRESENTS A SHEARED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS 
 EVENING...WITH A LINEAR EDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP 
 CONVECTION...WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF THE 
 APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR 
 ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 18 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS 
 CONSISTENT WITH THE SATELLITE TRENDS. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
 CAME IN AT T1.5 FROM BOTH PHFO AND SAB...WHILE JTWC FOUND TOO WEAK 
 TO CLASSIFY. CIMMS ADT HAS BEEN RUNNING NEAR T2.3/33 KT FOR
 THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED 
 AT 30 KT. 
 
 SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES AS WELL AS SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST 
 THAT GENEVIEVE HAS FINALLY CEASED LOSING LATITUDE...AND IN FACT HAS 
 PROBABLY MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT THE 
 DEPRESSION IS LIKELY STILL ENTANGLED TO SOME EXTENT WITH AN 
 ELONGATED WEST-EAST TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT THE RECENT MOTION 
 AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST 
 OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A 
 GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. THERE IS NO 
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. GENEVIEVE IS 
 FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
 RIDGE...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 
 COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN DECELERATE ONCE AGAIN FROM 
 DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE 
 INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 
 PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR THE TVCN CONSENSUS AND HWRF 
 GUIDANCE.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
 CONSISTENTLY STRENGTHENING GENEVIEVE...AND DOES SO AGAIN IN THIS
 CYCLE. THE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING
 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LESSEN AFTER ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...
 AND THE EXPECTED WEST NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM
 FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ITCZ. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES ARE RUNNING
 28 TO 29C ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
 INITIAL RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE
 HISTORY OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE OVERFORECASTING STRENGTHENING...
 HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALONG THE LOW EDGE
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WILL FORECAST
 GENEVIEVE TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
 BY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE/TYPHOON 
 STRENGTH BY 120 HOURS. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/0900Z  9.3N 164.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z  9.7N 166.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 10.5N 169.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 11.6N 172.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 12.7N 175.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 14.7N 179.0E   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  08/0600Z 16.5N 174.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  09/0600Z 18.0N 170.0E   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON/POWELL