028 
 WTPA42 PHFO 030246
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
 500 PM HST SAT AUG 02 2014
  
 DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE AS 
 IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN 
 ISLANDS. HOWEVER ITS APPEARANCE IS LESS ROBUST THAN THIS MORNING 
 WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES COMING IN WITH A T NUMBER OF 2.O 
 FROM SAB...JTWC AND PHFO. BASED ON ITS CURRENT SATELLITE 
 REPRESENTATION...GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL 
 DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN. BOTH UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE 
 EASTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT OVER THE SYSTEM. 
 
 GENEVIEVE IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
 THEREAFTER ...GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE AS IT WILL BE 
 NEAR THE WEST END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
 TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK 
 THROUGH ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE 
 WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY 
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND FOLLOWS DOWN THE CENTER 
 OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. ONLY SMALL FLUCUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED IS 
 FORECAST THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. A SCATTEROMETER PASS 
 AROUND 20Z ONLY CAPTURED A PORTION OF THE WEST SIDE OF GENEVIEVE. 
 WINDS CLOSEST TO THE CENTER WERE SURPRISINGLY LOW WITH THE STRONGEST 
 WINDS OF 25 KT BEING SAMPLED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE APPARENT 
 CENTER. THE VAST MAJORITY OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT 
 GENEVIEVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
 DAYS. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEAR 
 THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE RELAXING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. 
 SST VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 28C ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST 
 TRACK. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST HAS SLOWED THE SPEED OF 
 INTENSIFICATION...KEEPING GENEVIEVE A DEPRESSION THROUGH 24 HOURS 
 BEFORE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM IN A COUPLE OF 
 DAYS. THIS CLOSELY FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE HWRF MODEL THROUGH DAY 2. 
 MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS GENEVIEVE CONTINUING TO 
 STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST 
 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 
 BUT STILL KEEPS GENEVIEVE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/0300Z  9.8N 158.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z  9.3N 160.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z  9.0N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z  9.2N 165.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z  9.9N 168.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 11.7N 173.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 13.9N 178.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 15.7N 176.0E   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE