702 
 WTPA42 PHFO 021508
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
 500 AM HST SAT AUG 02 201
 
 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BROUGHT GENEVIEVE BACK TO LIFE AS A 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A SECOND TIME IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. 
 A 0719Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THAT A LOW-LEVEL 
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ WAS PRESENT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE 
 BECOMING INVIGORATED. THE MOST RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
 SHOWS NOT ONLY THAT REINVIGORATED GENEVIEVE HAS DEVELOPED A MUCH 
 IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...BUT ALSO IT APPEARS TO BE 
 TAPPING INTO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. 
 THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE 
 THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN VIABLE IN 
 THE NEAR-TERM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE 
 FIX AGENCIES SHOW T NUMBERS OF 2.0 AT PHFO AND SAB...WHILE JTWC HAS 
 A 1.5. IN ADDITION TO THESE DVORAK FIXES...THE 0719Z ASCAT PASS 
 SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 30 KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. 
 THEREFORE...THIS INITIAL ADVISORY WILL INDICATE AN INTENSITY OF 30 
 KT...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF 265 DEGREES / 09 KT.
 
 GENEVIEVE IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY 
 REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT... DYNAMICAL AND 
 CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 
 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE AIDS SHOW A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST 
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE 
 CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THESE 
 AIDS THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST IS CLOSE 
 TO THE GUIDANCE ON DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
 MORE PROBLEMATIC IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE 
 GENEVIEVE MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. ASSUMING IT IS A TROPICAL 
 DEPRESSION...THE FORECAST MODELS...SUCH AS SHIPS...APPEAR TO 
 GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS... 
 SINCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ASSUMED TO BE LOW AND THE SSTS ARE 
 GREATER THAN 27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT 
 FORECAST INDICATES GENEVIEVE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY 
 OR TONIGHT. AFTER THAT SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS 
 FORECAST. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/1500Z 11.9N 155.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 11.6N 157.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 11.2N 159.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 10.8N 162.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 11.0N 164.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 12.5N 169.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 14.5N 175.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 178.0E   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON