090 
 WTPA42 PHFO 311455
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
 500 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM THE ADVERSE 
 EFFECTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF 
 SOME DRY AIR. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS 
 DETERIORATED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CONVECTION WANING 
 AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL 
 CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/. LATEST UW/CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES 
 SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES NEAR 10 KT...WHILE SHIPS 
 INITIALIZED AT 16 KT OF SHEAR. THE HIGHER VALUE SEEMS MORE 
 LIKELY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST SHOWING LOCAL 
 MOTION VECTORS OF 20-25 KT. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATES FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE. AN 0757Z 
 ASCAT PASS FOUND 25 KT SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 
 CENTER...BUT THIS PASS DID NOT SAMPLE THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
 INITIAL INTENSITY FOR GENEVIEVE WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THE 
 LLCC POSITION HAS BEEN REFINED WITH MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM...AMSU 
 AND SSMIS PROVIDED BY THE NRL AND FNMOC WEBSITES. AN 1126Z VIIRS 
 DAY/NIGHT BAND IMAGE ALSO DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED LLCC. INITIAL 
 MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT.
 
 GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG 
 THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 
 SEVERAL DAYS. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE 
 TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...MOVES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE 
 WEST DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW 
 FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE 
 PREVIOUS TRACK...AND ALSO REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION 
 BEYOND 48 HOURS. 
  
 SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT VERTICAL WIND 
 SHEAR AFFECTING GENEVIEVE WILL NOT ABATE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR 
 SO...AND BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IT IS QUESTIONABLE 
 WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN DEPRESSION STATUS THAT LONG. EVEN 
 BEYOND 24 HOURS WHEN SHEAR MAY DECREASE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS 
 LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY 
 FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HOLDING GENEVIEVE 
 AT 30 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  31/1500Z 13.1N 150.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/0000Z 13.1N 151.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  01/1200Z 13.0N 152.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  02/0000Z 12.8N 154.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  02/1200Z 12.7N 156.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  03/1200Z 12.5N 161.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  04/1200Z 12.5N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  05/1200Z 13.0N 171.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON