377 
 WTPA42 PHFO 310850
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
 1100 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014
  
 THE LATEST DEPICTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IN INFRARED
 SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO SHOW THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SUFFER
 FROM THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF SOME DRY AIR. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS
 ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS ALMOST
 10 KT. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES FROM PHFO,
 SAB AND JTWC INDICATED THE CURRENT T NUMBER REMAINS 2.0. THEREFORE,
 THE LATEST INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. MORE PROBLEMATIC
 HAS BEEN THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF THE LLCC. IT APPEARS THAT THE
 MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ERRATIC AS THE LLCC BEGAN TO SEPARATE
 FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY NOT ONLY THE
 POSITIONS PROVIDED BY THE FIX AGENCIES, BUT RECENT SSMIS, TRMM, AMSU
 MICROWAVE PASSES AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL AND FNMOC WEB SITES ALLOWED
 US TO CONFIRM THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE REVISED
 TRACK, THE GENERAL MOTION OF GENEVIEVE IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT
 06 KT.
  
 THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE GENERAL
 WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
 NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION STARTING
 IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
 TO THE TRACK, WHICH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 WESTWARD FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
 
 THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY APPEARS TO SHOW THE CURRENT TREND
 OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT ABATE FOR AT LEAST THE
 NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE GUIDANCE ALSO DID NOT 
 APPEAR TO BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM TO A 
 TROPICAL STORM, EVEN THOUGH SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 27C ALONG THE FORECAST 
 TRACK. NOTE, THAT THE CIRA ANALYSIS OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALSO 
 APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
 ALONG THE MOST RECENT FORECAST TRACK. FOR THIS ADVISORY, GENEVIEVE 
 IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, 
 ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS IT WILL EXPERIENCE 
 DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  31/0900Z 13.1N 150.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  31/1800Z 13.1N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  01/0600Z 13.1N 152.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  01/1800Z 13.1N 153.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  02/0600Z 13.1N 155.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  03/0600Z 13.0N 159.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  04/0600Z 13.5N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  05/0600Z 13.5N 169.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON