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 350 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 211458
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
 800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008
  
 THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN WATCHING FOR SEVERAL
 DAYS HAS FINALLY OBTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SAME SYSTEM
 ALMOST BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
 AMERICA A FEW DAYS AGO.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE
 SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF BANDED DEEP CONVECTION FEATURES.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS 30 KT IN LINE WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES.  A SLOW
 INCREASE IN WINDS IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO
 MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY A
 LITTLE FASTER THEREAFTER AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS IN 4 DAYS OR SO.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
 HWRF/GFDL DO NOT INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM ON THEIR CURRENT INTEGRATION
 BUT HAVE INTENSIFIED IT QUITE A BIT BEFOREHAND.
  
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12.  A WEST OR
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO.  FOR THE FIRST ADVISORY...
 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
 THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAKNESS IN
 THE RIDGE COULD AFFECT THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES
 JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 13.4N 100.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.6N 102.6W    35 KT
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.9N 104.9W    40 KT
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.4N 107.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.9N 108.8W    55 KT
  72HR VT     24/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     25/1200Z 16.6N 114.2W    60 KT
 120HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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