628 
 WTNT42 KNHC 301439
 TCDAT2
 
 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016
 
 Microwave satellite images indicate that Gaston has completed an
 eyewall replacement cycle.  The eye is better defined than it was
 overnight and it has contracted some.  In addition, the convective
 pattern has gained symmetry, and dry slots that were apparent
 overnight are no longer evident.  The initial intensity is
 increased a little to 90 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak
 classification of 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and slightly higher numbers
 from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.
 
 Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so
 while Gaston remains in generally conducive environmental
 conditions. After that time, the hurricane is expected to move
 over progressively cooler waters and into an atmosphere of
 increasing shear and dry air.  These conditions should cause a
 steady weakening trend likely beginning on Wednesday night or
 Thursday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
 previous one in the short term, but is largely unchanged otherwise.
 This forecast is in good agreement with the intensity model
 consensus.
 
 The initial motion is now 060/7 kt.  A mid- to upper-level trough to
 the northwest of Gaston should cause the hurricane to become more
 embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  As a result, Gaston will
 likely accelerate east-northeastward during the next few days.
 By the end of the forecast period, a large extratropical low
 pressure area will approach Gaston and it should cause the hurricane
 to turn to the northeast and slow down.  The NHC track forecast is
 a bit slower than the previous one at the longer range points, and
 brings a weaker Gaston near the Azores Islands in 3 to 4 days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/1500Z 32.2N  52.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  31/0000Z 32.8N  51.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  31/1200Z 34.1N  49.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 35.9N  45.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 37.6N  41.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  02/1200Z 39.0N  32.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  03/1200Z 39.5N  28.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  04/1200Z 42.0N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi