789 
 WTNT42 KNHC 300234
 TCDAT2
 
 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
 1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016
 
 The satellite presentation of Gaston has not changed much during
 the last several hours.  The eye is ragged-looking in infrared
 satellite images and recent microwave data indicate that there are
 some signs of a double eyewall structure.  The initial intensity is
 held at 90 kt for this advisory, in agreement with the Dvorak
 CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Gaston will likely change little in
 strength during the next couple of days while it remains in
 generally conducive environmental conditions.  However, fluctuations
 in strength are possible if the cyclone continues to undergo an
 eyewall replacement. Beyond a couple of days, steady weakening is
 anticipated when the hurricane moves over cooler waters and into an
 environment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity
 forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one.
 
 Gaston has turned northeastward and is moving a bit faster, with the
 initial motion estimated to be 045/5 kt.  A trough currently
 seen in water vapor images near Atlantic Canada is expected to
 approach Gaston during the next 12 to 24 hours, and that should
 cause the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude
 westerlies. This should result in Gaston turning east-northeastward
 on Tuesday with a steady increase in forward speed during the next
 few days.  The model guidance has shifted a little to the north this
 cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0300Z 31.6N  54.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 32.1N  53.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  31/0000Z 32.8N  51.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  31/1200Z 34.0N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  01/0000Z 35.7N  45.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  02/0000Z 39.0N  36.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  03/0000Z 40.0N  29.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  04/0000Z 41.0N  24.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi