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 825 
 WTNT42 KNHC 270853
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
 500 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016
 
 Recent microwave data indicate that Gaston's center is now well
 embedded near the middle of the central dense overcast.  The
 microwave images also show that a partial mid-level ring has formed,
 but it remains open to the north-northeast.  Even though Gaston's
 structure appears to be improving, the maximum winds remain 55 kt
 based on Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.
 
 Two outflow jets are emanating away to the east and southwest of
 Gaston, but the outflow remains restricted to the south and
 northwest.  Still, the shear has decreased substantially from what
 it was a day or two ago, and it should remain generally low for the
 next 48 hours.  In addition, sea surface temperatures ahead of
 Gaston are expected to be at least 28C for several more days.
 Therefore, strengthening is anticipated through day 3, followed by
 gradual weakening on days 4 and 5 due to increasing westerly shear.
 Although the intensity models all agree on this general scenario,
 there is a little more spread in the peak intensities than has been
 noted in previous advisories.  On the high end, the Florida State
 Superensemble still shows Gaston approaching major hurricane
 intensity, while the LGEM model is at the other extreme being about
 20 kt lower.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the middle
 of the guidance and ends up just a little lower than the previous
 forecast.
 
 Gaston is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees at 13 kt, between a
 mid-tropospheric high to its northeast and a mid-/upper-level low
 to its southwest.  The cyclone is expected to maintain a
 northwestward heading but steadily decelerate during the next 48
 hours.  After that time, Gaston should recurve sharply
 east-northeastward and accelerate through the end of the forecast
 period as it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The
 track guidance has trended westward through 48 hours, delaying
 Gaston's recurvature just a bit, and it is then a little faster by
 days 4 and 5.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly
 and is close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0900Z 27.9N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 28.8N  53.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 29.9N  55.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 30.6N  56.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 31.2N  56.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 32.5N  55.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  31/0600Z 34.5N  50.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  01/0600Z 37.0N  43.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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