Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 977 
 WTNT42 KNHC 230231
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
 1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016
 
 The convective organization of the tropical cyclone has continued
 to increase this evening.  A couple of well-defined curved bands of
 convection now wrap more than halfway around the center and some
 cold cloud tops have recently developed near the center.  As a
 result, subjective Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T2.5 and
 support upgrading the system to a 35-kt tropical storm.  Gaston
 becomes the seventh tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane
 season.
 
 Gaston is forecast to move over warm water and remain in a low wind
 shear environment during the next couple of days.  These favorable
 conditions should allow for steady strengthening, and Gaston is
 forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, which agrees with
 the majority of the intensity guidance.  In about 3 days, the
 global models suggest that Gaston will be nearing an upper-level
 low over the central Atlantic that could cause an increase in
 southwesterly shear over the system.  This should halt
 intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for little change in
 strength after 72 hours.
 
 The tropical storm is being steered west-northwestward to the south
 of deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  A west-northwestward
 motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
 next day or so.  After that time, a weakness in the subtropical
 ridge over the central Atlantic should cause Gaston to turn
 northwestward.  The track guidance remains in very good agreement,
 and the NHC forecast is close to the various consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0300Z 12.6N  30.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 13.0N  33.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 14.0N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  24/1200Z 15.3N  38.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  25/0000Z 17.1N  41.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  26/0000Z 21.0N  46.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  27/0000Z 25.0N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  28/0000Z 28.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for GASTON

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman