590 
 WTNT42 KNHC 010239
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
  
 GASTON IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER 60 DEGREE
 WATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE EVEN INCREASED A BIT
 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE
 CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
 NEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE WINDS MAY HAVE FALLEN
 SOME...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT AS A
 COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE APPARENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
 GASTON IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONG
 OVER SUCH COLD WATER...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN THE SHIPS
 GUIDANCE...INDICATE THAT SOME MODEST EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING
 MAY OCCUR.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/27. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
 SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION AS GASTON...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL
 REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
 MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 41.8N  66.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 43.7N  60.4W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 46.5N  51.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 49.0N  41.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 51.5N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
 $$