090 
 WTNT42 KNHC 290834
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
  
 RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GASTON IS VERY CLOSE
 TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB
 AND AFWA WERE 55 KT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE NWS/CHARLESTON RADAR
 SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL...BUT ONLY A
 MODEST WARM SPOT IS APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BASED
 ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60
 KT.  I SEE NOTHING TO PREVENT GASTON FROM REACHING HURRICANE
 STRENGTH IN THE HOURS REMAINING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 65 KT AT 12 HOURS...GASTON SHOULD ALREADY
 BE INLAND BY THAT TIME.  I SUSPECT THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WILL
 BE A LITTLE HIGHER...PERHAPS AROUND 70 KT. 
 
 GASTON HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
 IS NOW 350/6. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY
 NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
 THE WESTERLIES...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
 TRENDED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE FASTER NORTHWARD
 MOTION ALSO SUGGESTS THAT GASTON MAY PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT
 OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GASTON SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
 APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0900Z 32.5N  79.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     29/1800Z 33.5N  79.6W    65 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     30/0600Z 35.0N  79.4W    35 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     30/1800Z 36.7N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     31/0600Z 38.5N  75.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     01/0600Z 43.0N  66.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
  
  
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