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 361 
 WTNT42 KNHC 272047
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004
  
 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATONS...ALONG WITH WSR-88D DATA FROM
 CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...INDICATE
 THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF THE
 SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DEVELOPED INTO
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.
 
 THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE STEERING CURRENTS
 ARE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD-7
 IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
 U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
 AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. BY
 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND
 CARRIED OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
 FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS
 MODELS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS
 EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
 HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS SHOWING
 GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THUS...
 GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 24
 HR AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT AT LANDFALL.  THERE IS A
 CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT STAYS
 OFFSHORE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
  
 FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      27/2100Z 31.6N  78.1W    25 KT
  12HR VT     28/0600Z 31.5N  78.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     28/1800Z 32.0N  79.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     29/0600Z 32.8N  80.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     29/1800Z 33.7N  79.4W    30 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     30/1800Z 35.1N  77.7W    30 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     31/1800Z 39.0N  74.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 120HR VT     01/1800Z 42.0N  64.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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