007 
 WTNT42 KNHC 140852
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 4 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005
 
 LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30
 KT...SO THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE LAST
 ADVISORY.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY STRONG
 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IT IS NOT WELL
 ORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.  SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL
 SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER
 ANTILLES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 25-33 KT OF
 WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON
 STRENGTHENING THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  BEYOND 2 DAYS...ASSUMING THAT
 THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GLOBAL MODELS
 INDICATE THAT THE SHEARING WILL LESSEN AS A RESULT OF AN
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THAT REGION.  THE GFDL MODEL
 CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE LATER IN THE
 PERIOD.  THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY SYSTEMS IN
 SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...BUT IT NONETHELESS DEMANDS THE FORECASTERS'
 RESPECT AS VERY CREDIBLE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
 FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AND IS THE
 SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
 SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER IS NOT
 YET WELL-DEFINED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER
 UNCERTAIN 295/9.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
 THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
 SHOULD WEAKEN THIS RIDGE...AND SLOW THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. 
 GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL THUS
 FAR...SO A SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS
 TIME.  MY OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ONE...AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFDL TRACK.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0900Z 13.8N  63.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.4N  64.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.1N  66.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  67.8W    35 KT
  48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  69.7W    40 KT
  72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.0N  73.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     18/0600Z 16.0N  76.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N  79.5W    60 KT
  
  
 $$