766 
 WTNT43 KNHC 080232
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number  19
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019
 
 Microwave data indicate that Gabrielle has a well-organized central
 core.  However, the convection isn't very deep, perhaps because of
 dry air entrainment, with most of the convection in a band southeast
 of the center.  The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, which
 agrees well with an ASCAT-B pass of 40-45 kt and the latest TAFB
 fix.
 
 The storm is moving steadily west-northwestward around the
 southwestern side of a mid-level high over the eastern Atlantic.
 This high is forecast to slide eastward as the westerlies intensify
 due to flow around Gabrielle's southern flank in the far north
 Atlantic.  Models are in very good agreement overall, but there
 continues to be some speed differences.  The NHC forecast is on the
 faster side of the guidance, near the NOAA corrected-consensus
 guidance and the previous forecast, since the typical error in the
 higher latitudes is to be too slow.
 
 The low-shear area that was supposed to materialize in the
 subtropical Atlantic near Gabrielle this weekend did not occur, and
 as a result there is very little guidance suggesting that the
 cyclone will become a hurricane.  The storm still has a day or two
 to strengthen over relatively warm waters before shear increases
 markedly, and water temperatures plummet north of the Gulf Stream.
 The intensity forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one
 at 36-48 h, although still above the model consensus, and is similar
 thereafter.  All models still show extratropical transition by 72 h
 and dissipation by day 5.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 32.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 33.4N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 35.8N  49.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 38.8N  47.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 41.7N  43.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z 47.0N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  12/0000Z 54.5N  13.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake