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 408 
 WTNT42 KNHC 131440
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013
  
 AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE VERY
 LITTLE...IF ANY...NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
 CIRCULATION.  GABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
 SINCE THAT TIME...REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NORTH WINDS ARE
 PRESENT.  HOWEVER...A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6
 HOURS AT LEAST MAKES IT PLAUSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
 CLOSED...AND SO GABRIELLE IS BEING HELD AS A 30 KT TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MAXIMUM
 WINDS IS POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.
  
 THE FORWARD SPEED OF GABRIELLE HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/20. ALL OF THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO
 ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH A
 DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
 AND CANADA.  THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GABRIELLE WILL OPEN UP INTO
 A TROUGH LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS A 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT.  AFTER
 THAT...GABRIELLE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET ABSORBED BY AN
 APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/1500Z 39.1N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 43.2N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
  
 
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