084 
 WTNT42 KNHC 100232
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007
  
 SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT GABRIELLE IS A POORLY
 ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION FAR TO THE
 SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STORM HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
 AND WAS FIXED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...FINDING 42
 KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.
 RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FRISCO PIER SUGGEST THAT 40 KT
 REMAINS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG
 SHEAR AND ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF WARM WATER REMAINING IN THE
 STORM'S PATH...SOME WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AND IS SHOWN IN THE NHC
 OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
 REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM AND
 MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION
 CONTINUES TO BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...GABRIELLE COULD
 LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL
 LOW IN A FEW DAYS.
  
 THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND IS ESTIMATED
 NEAR 035/9. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN EAST-
 NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
 WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 ALMOST THE SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...
 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
 LOW BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES SUGGEST
 THE POSSIBILITY OF GABRIELLE REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO
 BE SEPARATE FROM THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT TO REMAIN A WEAK
 SYSTEM.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0300Z 36.3N  75.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     10/1200Z 37.2N  73.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     11/0000Z 38.3N  70.8W    35 KT
  36HR VT     11/1200Z 39.5N  67.5W    35 KT
  48HR VT     12/0000Z 41.0N  62.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     13/0000Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH