112 
 WTNT41 KNHC 050237
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015
 
 An ASCAT-A pass just before 0000 UTC showed a small area of 35-kt
 winds northeast of Fred's center, and that is the basis for the
 initial intensity, making Fred a tropical storm once again. The
 central pressure has been adjusted upward to 1009 mb based on
 observations from drifting buoy 13519, as it appears Fred is now
 embedded in an environment of higher pressure.  Despite rather
 hostile vertical shear, Fred has managed to maintain enough
 organized deep convection during the past couple of days to stave
 off post-tropical status. The latest burst of convection is now
 moving away from the low-level center, but this bursting pattern
 seems likely to continue for the next couple of days as the cyclone
 moves over gradually warmer waters in moderate to strong shear.
 Since Fred has survived this long, it seems less likely that the
 cyclone will become post-tropical in the short term, and that is no
 longer shown in the official forecast. However, given our limited
 ability to predict convective scale changes, this still remains a
 possibility.
 
 Little significant change in intensity is shown in the first 48
 hours, as the guidance shows Fred between 30 and 35 kt during that
 time. Subsequently, as the shear weakens all of the guidance shows
 at least some strengthening. The NHC forecast shows only a modest
 re-intensification later in the period, given the possibility that
 the circulation of Fred could open up or be absorbed in 4 or 5 days
 as shown by the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/09, and Fred should begin to move
 around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge during the
 next couple of days and then turn northeastward in the mid-latitude
 westerlies. This cycle the models have trended faster with the
 forward speed of Fred, and have shown a northward shift after 48
 hours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted to account for these
 trends, but now lies on the right side of the guidance envelope at
 days 3 through 5. Given the large spread at these time ranges, and
 the possibility that Fred could be absorbed or dissipate late in the
 period, the extended portion of the track forecast is of lower than
 normal confidence.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 22.8N  40.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 23.2N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 23.9N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 25.3N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 27.1N  41.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 30.5N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 34.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 36.0N  30.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan