711 
 WTNT41 KNHC 021437
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015
 
 Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and
 consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
 circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is
 maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent
 ASCAT overpass.  If organized deep convection does not return very
 soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical
 cyclone this afternoon.  Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface
 temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to
 gradually spin down during the next few days.  Very late in the
 forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs
 and in an area of lower shear.  Redevelopment appears unlikely,
 however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central
 Atlantic.
 
 Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The forecast calls
 for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over
 the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the
 eastern Atlantic.  After that time, the remnant low is predicted to
 turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it
 moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure
 area centered south of the Azores.  The new NHC track forecast is
 in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the
 southern edge of the model envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/1500Z 19.8N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 20.2N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  03/1200Z 20.9N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  04/0000Z 21.5N  35.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  04/1200Z 21.9N  36.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  05/1200Z 22.7N  39.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  06/1200Z 24.2N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  07/1200Z 26.5N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown