174 
 WTNT41 KNHC 302035
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
 
 Fred has continued to strengthen this afternoon.  A new burst of
 deep convection has developed over the center, with the CDO becoming
 more symmetric.  Late afternoon visible satellite pictures also
 reveal increased banding in all quadrants.  AMSR-2 and GCOM
 microwave data from late this morning indicated that Fred continues
 to exhibit a well-defined inner core with a closed low-level ring in
 the 37 GHz imagery.  The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt,
 which is in agreement with a subjective data T-number of 3.5 from
 TAFB and T3.4 from UW/CIMSS ADT.
 
 Fred is forecast to remain in a favorable environment characterized
 by very low vertical wind shear, warm water, and sufficient
 mid-level moisture during the next day or so.  Therefore, additional
 strengthening is expected and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to
 become a hurricane tonight or early Monday.  This is supported by
 the statistical guidance and the HWRF model which bring Fred to
 hurricane status.  In about 36 hours, the tropical cyclone
 will be moving into a more hostile environment of increasing
 southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more
 stable air mass.  This should result in weakening throughout the
 remainder of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast weakens
 Fred to a tropical depression by 120 h.
 
 Fred has been moving faster than predicted today, and the initial
 motion estimate is 310/14 kt.  The forecast track philosophy remains
 unchanged from before.  The cyclone should move northwestward toward
 a break in the subtropical ridge during the next day or so.  In a
 couple of days, Fred should turn west-northwestward as the ridge
 rebuilds to the north of the cyclone over the eastern and
 central Atlantic.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little north
 of the previous advisory after 48 hours to be in better agreement
 with the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF) consensus model.
 
 Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
 product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
 Cape Verde Islands.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/2100Z 14.4N  21.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  31/0600Z 15.6N  22.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  31/1800Z 16.9N  24.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 18.2N  26.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 19.2N  28.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 20.6N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 21.8N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  04/1800Z 22.8N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown