661 
 WTNT41 KNHC 301450
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
 
 Visible satellite imagery indicates that convection associated
 with the tropical cyclone continues to organize.  A curved band of
 convection now wraps almost completely around the center and recent
 images show that a small CDO feature has developed. An earlier
 WindSat microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined inner core.
 Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are around 3.0, and based on
 these the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.
 
 The environment ahead of Fred appears conducive for strengthening
 during the next 24 to 36 hours.  During that time, there will
 be sufficient mid-level moisture, the shear is expected to remain
 low, and the cyclone will be traversing sea surface temperatures
 of 27 to 28C.  Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated and
 the SHIPS and LGEM models bring Fred to hurricane status within
 24 hours.  Strengthening is also supported by the GFS and ECMWF
 models, which both show the cyclone deepening while it moves through
 the Cape Verde Islands.  After 36 hours, lower sea surface
 temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a more stable
 environment should cause weakening.
 
 Fred is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The tropical storm is
 forecast to move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical
 ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands.  In a couple of days,
 the ridge is forecast to build westward, which should cause Fred to
 turn west-northwestward.  As Fred weakens and become a more shallow
 cyclone late in the period, a westward to west-northwestward
 motion is expected.  The NHC track is near the consensus of the
 ECMWF and GFS models through 72 hours.  Later in the period, the NHC
 forecast shows a weaker system moving more westward, and this track
 is along the southern edge of the guidance in best agreement with
 the ECMWF.
 
 Based on this track and intensity forecast, the Meteorological
 Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning
 for those islands.
 
 Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
 product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
 Cape Verde Islands.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/1500Z 13.4N  19.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  31/0000Z 14.3N  21.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  31/1200Z 15.7N  23.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 17.2N  25.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 18.3N  27.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  02/1200Z 19.5N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  03/1200Z 20.5N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  04/1200Z 21.0N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown