662 
 WTNT41 KNHC 122057
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011
 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011
  
 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC
 ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR
 TWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC
 WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
 WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED
 ON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY
 REPORTS...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
 NOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN
 ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...FAIRLY DRY
 MID-LEVEL AIR...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
 IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES
 OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
 FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
 AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
 NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT
 SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT
 MERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
 THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
 ECMWF MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/2100Z 36.0N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 37.0N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 38.5N  57.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 39.8N  53.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 40.6N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
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 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART