677 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 270833
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016
 
 The eye of Frank disappeared from geostationary imagery around 0600
 UTC, indicative of the beginning of a weakening trend.  Central
 convection has been gradually diminishing, and Dvorak T-numbers
 are decreasing.  The current intensity is set at 70 kt which is a
 blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Frank is starting to
 traverse a gradient of SSTs, so steady weakening is expected as the
 cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters.  The official
 intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN,
 and calls for the system to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant
 low in about 48 hours.
 
 The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt.
 A mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast by the global models to
 remain to the north of Frank for the next few days, with some
 weakening of this ridge.  Therefore, a continued west-northwestward
 motion with some deceleration is forecast for the next couple of
 days.  After that, the weak and shallow cyclone is expected to move
 generally westward following the low level environmental winds.
 The official track forecast follows the dynamical consensus aid,
 TVCN.
 
 Data from an ASCAT overpass indicated that Frank was smaller than
 previously estimated, and the wind radii have been adjusted
 accordingly.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0900Z 22.5N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 23.3N 121.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 24.3N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 25.0N 124.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 25.3N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  30/0600Z 25.3N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch