923 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 222037
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
 300 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016
 
 The deep convection associated with Frank has been pulsing this
 afternoon and a thin upper-level overcast covers the center.  A
 1626Z ASCAT-A scatterometer overpass indicated peak winds of about
 45 kt. This is consistent with the Dvorak current intensity numbers
 of 3.0 from both SAB and TAFB, so 45 kt remains the intensity at
 this time.  The scatterometer also showed that Frank remains a
 rather small tropical storm.
 
 Frank should experience moderate tropospheric vertical shear, warm
 to hot SSTs, and a moist, unstable atmosphere for the next two to
 three days.  Thus gradual to steady intensification is likely, even
 though Frank has been steady state for almost a day now.  Beyond day
 three, the tropical cyclone should encounter a more hostile
 environment with cool SSTs to the west of Baja California with a
 more dry, stable atmosphere.  Gradual to steady weakening should
 commence around day three.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly
 below that from the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF and
 SHIPS models through three days and upon the SHIPS and LGEM models
 at the longer lead times.
 
 The scatterometer pass also provided an accurate observation of
 Frank's center location and the cyclone remains heading toward the
 northwest at about 12 kt. Frank should turn toward the
 west-northwest during the next few days at a slower rate of forward
 speed, as the east-west extended deep-layer ridge to its north
 weakens some.  All of the reliable global and regional hurricane
 models are in close agreement on this scenario and the NHC track
 prediction is very similar to the previous advisory through day four
 and somewhat south of the previous prediction at day five.
 
 With the forecast track now well offshore from the coast of Mexico,
 any direct impacts to land are unlikely.  However, swells associated
 with Frank will affect the coasts of southern Baja California and
 the state of Sinaloa beginning on Saturday.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/2100Z 17.9N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  23/0600Z 18.5N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  23/1800Z 18.8N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  24/0600Z 19.3N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  24/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  25/1800Z 20.8N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  26/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  27/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea