030 
 WTNT41 KNHC 061424
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004
  
 DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR
 INDICATE THAT FRACNES HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE AND STILL
 CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION WITHOUT AN INNER CORE. INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE
 CYCLONE TO INCREASE 10 MORE KNOTS AND BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
 LANDFALL. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN KEPT FOR A
 PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
 
 THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 7
 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LARGE
 CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. FRANCES SHOULD
 WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST UNTIL
 ABSORBED A FRONT IN 96 HOURS.  
 
 FRANCES IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE STRONGEST
 WINDS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/1500Z 29.5N  84.0W    55 KT
  12HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  84.7W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     07/1200Z 32.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     08/0000Z 33.5N  85.5W    20 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     09/1200Z 40.0N  81.0W    20 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
  
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