513 
 WTNT21 KNHC 032038
 TCMAT1
 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
 2100Z FRI SEP 03 2004
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
 FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
 OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
 NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
 PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
  
 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
 NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE
 WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
 FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
 FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
 BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
  
 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  77.5W AT 03/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
 64 KT....... 75NE  40SE  40SW  75NW.
 50 KT.......120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 34 KT.......160NE 125SE 110SW 140NW.
 12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  77.5W AT 03/2100Z
 AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  77.2W
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.5N  78.4W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 64 KT... 75NE  40SE  40SW  75NW.
 50 KT...145NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 34 KT...175NE 125SE 110SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.4N  80.0W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 64 KT... 75NE  40SE  40SW  75NW.
 50 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 34 KT...160NE 125SE 110SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT...120NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT...160NE 125SE  50SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N  82.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT...  0NE   0SE  50SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.1N  85.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.1N  87.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 40.0N  85.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  77.5W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 $$