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 245 
 WTNT41 KNHC 021435
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2004
  
 THE HURRICANE REMAINS VERY WELL-ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE IMAGES
 DEPICT A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE 127 KNOTS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER
 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASUREMENTS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125
 KNOTS.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE
 INTENSITY SOON. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
 LANDFALL BUT FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR
 HURRICANE.
  
 THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT THIS MORNING IS THAT THE NATIONAL
 WEATHER SERVICE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
 SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND ARE NOW IN BETTER
 AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOW THAT THE RELIABLE
 GFS AND GFDL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...THE
 CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER. FRANCES IS MOVING
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE
 PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING THE
 RIDGE STRONG AND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A
 WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST
 COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A
 LARGE WIND FIELD AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
 REACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER THAN THE EYE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS
 BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO ALLOW
 SUFFICIENT TIME FOR PREPARATIONS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/1500Z 23.4N  73.9W   125 KT
  12HR VT     03/0000Z 24.3N  75.4W   125 KT
  24HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N  77.2W   125 KT
  36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.4N  78.5W   125 KT
  48HR VT     04/1200Z 27.0N  79.7W   125 KT
  72HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W    70 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     07/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  
  
 $$
 
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