147 
 WTNT41 KNHC 011445
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
  
 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
 A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
 TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
 SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS.  AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
 MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
 FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
 HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
 FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
 14 KNOTS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
 IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
 HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
 DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
 NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
 IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
 WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
 REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
 THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 21.7N  69.8W   120 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.6N  71.8W   125 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N  74.0W   125 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N  76.0W   130 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 26.0N  77.5W   130 KT
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N  80.0W   125 KT
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  82.0W    75 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 31.6N  84.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  
  
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