811 
 WTNT21 KNHC 291440
 TCMAT1
 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
 1500Z SUN AUG 29 2004
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
 LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
  
 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
 CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  54.7W AT 29/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
 64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 12 FT SEAS..230NE 170SE 150SW 200NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  54.7W AT 29/1500Z
 AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  54.3W
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.8N  56.1W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
 50 KT... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.5N  58.5W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.0N  61.0W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.5N  63.5W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 50 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.8N  68.7W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 50 KT... 85NE  85SE  85SW  85NW.
 34 KT...160NE 150SE 150SW 160NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N  72.6W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  54.7W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 $$