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 071 
 WTNT41 KNHC 290229
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
  
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE LAST
 FORECAST CYCLE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
 TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
 THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
 GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER MOTION IN THE EARLY FORECAST
 PERIODS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
 POSITIONS.    
  
 FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
 OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
 INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD 
 REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 18.3N  53.4W   115 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.8N  54.5W   120 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.4N  56.3W   125 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N  58.6W   125 KT
  48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.1N  61.1W   125 KT
  72HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N  66.3W   125 KT
  96HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N  70.6W   125 KT
 120HR VT     03/0000Z 24.0N  74.0W   125 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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