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 181 
 WTNT41 KNHC 260227
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
 CLOUD PATTERN OF FRANCES.  BANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE
 PRONOUNCED...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM ALL THREE
 AGENCIES...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST AND VERTICAL
 SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW ALONG THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR
 THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  SO...IN SPITE OF THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF IN
 THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INTENSIFICATION IS
 LIKELY.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME
 LESS FAVORABLE AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR IS INDICATED BY THE
 LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT FOR 96 AND 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO SHIPS...AS WELL AS
 THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...NOW 280/14. 
 A MID-LATITUDE 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL
 ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS FEATURE IS CERTAINLY
 AT TOO HIGH A LATITUDE TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE STEERING OF FRANCES. 
 HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
 FRANCES WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FURTHER SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
 AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT.  AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SUITE...TWO
 TRACKS...THE GFS AND THE U.K. MET...ARE OUTLIERS.  THE GFS IS WELL
 TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS WHEREAS THE
 U.K. MET. IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
 LATEST GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND CONU CONSENSUS FORECASTS.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/0300Z 11.8N  41.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     26/1200Z 12.5N  43.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     27/0000Z 13.5N  46.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N  47.5W    55 KT
  48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N  49.0W    60 KT
  72HR VT     29/0000Z 17.3N  51.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N  54.0W    80 KT
 120HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N  56.5W    80 KT
  
 $$
 
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