901 
 WTNT41 KNHC 250229
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
 STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME BETTER
 ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE OF DEEP
 CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  THEREFORE THE
 SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS PRONOUNCED
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...EAST...AND SOUTH OF THE
 CENTER...BUT OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE EAST.  ANALYSES FROM THE
 UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG
 THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE CYCLONE TO ABOUT 50W LONGITUDE.  FARTHER
 WEST AND NORTH...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
 200 MB FORECAST FROM THE GFS MODEL.  THEREFORE STRENGTHENING MAY BE
 INHIBITED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY
 UNCERTAIN.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT AROUND 15 KT.  DYNAMICAL
 MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
 DAYS...DUE TO THE INCURSION OF A TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
 THIS TROUGH IS AT RATHER HIGH LATITUDES HOWEVER...SO IT IS NOT
 LIKELY TO PLAY A DIRECT ROLE IN STEERING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 NOTWITHSTANDING...THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A SLOWING OF
 THE FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...BUT
 IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND FASTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS IN VIEW
 OF THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH SEEMS TO BE ACCELERATING TO THE WEST 
 AS WE SPEAK.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/0300Z 11.2N  36.0W    25 KT
  12HR VT     25/1200Z 11.8N  38.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     26/0000Z 12.4N  40.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     26/1200Z 13.0N  43.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     27/0000Z 13.8N  45.1W    50 KT
  72HR VT     28/0000Z 16.0N  48.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N  51.0W    70 KT
 120HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N  53.0W    70 KT
  
 $$