Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 477 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 100852
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007
 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT IS
 DISPLACED NORTH OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
 STILL...IT IS ENOUGH TO HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR
 THIS ADVISORY.  IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION
 SEEMS TO HAVE EVERYTHING WORKING AGAINST IT INCLUDING PROGRESSIVELY
 COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING VERTICAL
 SHEAR...AND A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
 CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR SO.
  
 THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE IN
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE LAST FEW FRAMES INDICATE THE
 INITIAL MOTION...300/9...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY
 UNCHANGED.  AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW
 SYSTEM...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0900Z 18.3N 120.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     10/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W    30 KT
  24HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N 122.9W    25 KT
  36HR VT     11/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     12/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for FOUR-E

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman