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 547 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 261431
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013
 
 THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH FLOSSIE DURING THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
 CENTER...AND THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW SOME INNER CORE
 FEATURES TRYING TO FORM.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS 6 HOURS
 AGO...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 45 KT.  FLOSSIE STILL HAS
 SOME CHANCE TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
 MARGINALLY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
 COMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO AS FLOSSIE MOVES FARTHER INTO AN
 ENVIRONMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO
 MODERATE SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
 THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
 ASCAT AND TRMM DATA SHOW THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
 NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. 
 FLOSSIE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THE
 RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/1500Z 16.1N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  27/0000Z 16.7N 134.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  27/1200Z 17.5N 138.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  28/0000Z 18.3N 141.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  28/1200Z 19.0N 144.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  29/1200Z 19.5N 150.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  30/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 120H  31/1200Z 20.5N 161.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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