606
WTPA41 PHFO 300242
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2013
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE REMAINS
EXPOSED AND IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS DEFINED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE IS NO
LONGER A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A DEPRESSION.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IMPACT THE SYSTEM. FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A DEPRESSION THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
36 TO 48 HOURS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MOST MODELS
INDICATING A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE RECENT MOVEMENT OF FLOSSIE.
THIS TRACK WILL HAVE FLOSSIE PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 21.3N 156.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 22.1N 158.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 23.0N 162.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 23.5N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0000Z 24.0N 168.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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