358
WTPA41 PHFO 281453
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FLOSSIE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED
OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED SOMEWHAT IN THE
LAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A TRMM PASS AT 0733Z SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN EYE FEATURE...AND HINTS OF THAT FEATURE WERE APPARENT IN
EARLIER INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. A 0630Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE...BUT GIVEN
THE APPARENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND THE
TENDENCY FOR ASCAT TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND SPEEDS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
TOWARD 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT.
ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG FLOSSIE/S PROJECTED PATH...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLOSSIE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY
AIR ALOFT...DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY RIDGE ALOFT JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS
FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPART INCREASING
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND INTENSITY MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN
EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FLOSSIE/S
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS IT DISTANCES ITSELF
FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND BEGINS TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEARLY ALL
THE MODELS SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY
MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 19.8N 146.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 149.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.2N 152.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 20.3N 156.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 20.5N 159.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 20.9N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 21.2N 173.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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