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 358 
 WTPA41 PHFO 281453
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062013
 500 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FLOSSIE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED 
 OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED SOMEWHAT IN THE 
 LAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE 
 OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A TRMM PASS AT 0733Z SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT 
 OF AN EYE FEATURE...AND HINTS OF THAT FEATURE WERE APPARENT IN 
 EARLIER INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. A 0630Z ASCAT PASS 
 SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH AS 45 KT IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE...BUT GIVEN 
 THE APPARENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND THE 
 TENDENCY FOR ASCAT TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND SPEEDS...THE INITIAL 
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 
 TOWARD 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT.
 
 ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG FLOSSIE/S PROJECTED PATH...WATER 
 VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLOSSIE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY 
 AIR ALOFT...DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY 
 STATIONARY RIDGE ALOFT JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS 
 FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPART INCREASING 
 NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND INTENSITY MODELS 
 CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN 
 EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH 
 MUCH OF THE FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
 TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FLOSSIE/S 
 FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS IT DISTANCES ITSELF 
 FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND BEGINS TO 
 FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE TRACK 
 GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEARLY ALL 
 THE MODELS SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY 
 MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TRACK 
 FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR 
 THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/1500Z 19.8N 146.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 20.1N 149.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  29/1200Z 20.2N 152.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  30/0000Z 20.3N 156.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  30/1200Z 20.5N 159.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  31/1200Z 20.9N 166.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  01/1200Z 21.2N 173.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD
  
 
 
 
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