245 
 WTPA41 PHFO 280849
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062013
 1100 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013
 
 CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE...AND CIRRUS 
 OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...INDICATING THAT 
 FLOSSIE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
 BULLETIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 50 KT... 
 WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK 
 INTENSITY ANALYSES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 275 
 DEGREES AT 17 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 
 HOURS. 
 
 ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM SOMEWHAT ALONG FLOSSIE/S PROJECTED PATH...WATER 
 VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLOSSIE ENTERING AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY 
 AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE ALOFT JUST 
 WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS 
 RIDGE IS LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR 
 OVER THE SYSTEM...AND INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 
 GRADUAL WEAKENING OF FLOSSIE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED 
 UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS 
 THEREAFTER...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 120 
 HOURS...WHICH IS LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 
 
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FLOSSIE/S FORWARD 
 SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS IT DISTANCES ITSELF FROM THE 
 SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE 
 EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO 
 FORCE FLOSSIE TOWARD DUE WEST...AND NEARLY ALL THE MODELS ARE 
 SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AROUND MONDAY MORNING. 
 THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE 
 PREVIOUS ONE...AND REQUIRES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY 
 AND THE BIG ISLAND TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. WITH 
 PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INCREASING FOR OAHU...A 
 TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0900Z 19.4N 145.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 19.8N 147.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 20.0N 151.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 20.0N 154.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  30/0600Z 20.1N 157.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  31/0600Z 20.4N 164.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  01/0600Z 20.5N 171.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD