871
WTPA41 PHFO 280232
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
JUST AHEAD OF FLOSSIE ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS AND SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOSSIE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH ALL INTENSITY MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 19.0N 143.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 19.4N 145.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.8N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 19.9N 152.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 19.9N 155.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 19.9N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 20.0N 167.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for FLOSSIE
Back to main Tropical Weather page
This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman
|