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 871 
 WTPA41 PHFO 280232
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062013
 500 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT
 INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
 NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
 JUST AHEAD OF FLOSSIE ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS AND SOME DRY AIR
 INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOSSIE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH ALL INTENSITY MODELS. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH WHICH HAS 
 CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
 SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF
 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL
 OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 THUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE
 BIG ISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0300Z 19.0N 143.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 19.4N 145.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 19.8N 149.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 19.9N 152.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 19.9N 155.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  31/0000Z 19.9N 161.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  01/0000Z 20.0N 167.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE
  
 
 
 
 
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