833 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 110850
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007
 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2007
  
 FLOSSIE HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT.  INFRARED
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A 15 N MI-WIDE
 CLEAR EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND -75C.
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.5/102
 KT...AND 6-HR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND
 102 KT AS WELL.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT...AND FLOSSIE IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE
 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
  
 FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
 10 KT AND SSTS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 26C.  WITH THAT SAID...SOME
 FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...POSSIBLY EVEN MORE THAN
 FORECAST...HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PEAK
 FLOSSIE AROUND 100 KT.  AFTER TWO OR SO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
 ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
 IMPACT OF THE INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST
 VARIES FROM EACH OF THE MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE WHICH HAVE A MORE ACCURATE
 INITIALIZATION.
  
 FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD...270/12...UNDER THE
 INFLUENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OVERALL MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
 WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.  THEREAFTER
 THE MODELS DIVERGE...THE NOGAPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS TAKE A STRONGER
 SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET...GFS...AND HWRF GUIDANCE
 MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A
 RESULT OF A MORE WEAKENED SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
 ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AS WELL AS THE FSSE MODEL.
  
 THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLOSSIE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
 CENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
 HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 12.6N 139.3W   100 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 12.9N 141.1W   105 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W   105 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 13.8N 145.6W    95 KT
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 148.0W    85 KT
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 152.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 156.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI