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 491 
 WTPA42 PHFO 160900
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007
 1100 PM HST WED AUG 15 2007
 
 CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM HFO AND
 JTWC...AND 3.1 FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT).
 MANUAL LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN LOCALLY RUN ADT GIVES
 1.0. THE BURST OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHEARED OFF BY
 SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY
 REGENERATION OF THE CONVECTION. ALL THAT IS LEFT IS A LOW LEVEL
 CLOUD SWIRL...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A
 GENEROUS 30 KNOTS.   
  
 AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE MUCH WEAKENED FLOSSIE IS
 EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
 FLOW...AND WILL NOT REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL
 CONVECTIVE FLAREUP MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT WILL BE
 QUICKLY SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED
 SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE 00Z FIX POSITION.
 THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0900Z 17.1N 160.7W    30 KT
  12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.1N 162.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     17/0600Z 17.3N 164.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     17/1800Z 17.7N 167.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
  48HR VT     18/0600Z 18.2N 170.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
  72HR VT     19/0600Z 19.3N 175.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
  96HR VT     20/0600Z 20.1N 178.9E    10 KT...DISSIPATED
 120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.4N 173.5E    10 KT...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWNING
  
 
 
 
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