654 
 WTPA42 PHFO 152038
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092007
 1100 AM HST WED AUG 15 2007
 
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON
 FLOSSIE...DESPITE THE RECENT FLARE-UP OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTH
 SIDE OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM HFO AND JTWC...AND 3.5 FROM
 SAB. FLOSSIE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER NOAA BUOY 51002 AROUND 1700
 UTC...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KT AT 1500 UTC. THE INTENSITY FOR
 THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...PRIMARILY BASED ON THE
 BUOY OBSERVATIONS...WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. 
 
 FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE
 FLOW...AS IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE IN THE VERTICAL DUE TO
 INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS
 HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
 INDICATES A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE
 TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A TIGHTLY BUNCHED MODEL
 ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
 
 DESPITE MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT
 CONTENT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT FLOSSIE FROM
 INTENSIFYING. A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
 HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE
 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST IN TANDEM WITH FLOSSIE...LEADING
 SHIPS TO DISSIPATE FLOSSIE IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 DEPICTS A WEAKENING TREND...WHICH FOLLOWS HWF GUIDANCE CLOSELY
 THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY MODELS
 THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST KEEPS FLOSSIE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
 DISSIPATION.
 
 THE 403RD WING OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
 SQUADRON IS NO LONGER FLYING MISSIONS INTO FLOSSIE AND IS RETURNING
 TO THE MAINLAND. MANY THANKS FROM CPHC FOR THEIR TIMELY AND
 CRITICAL DATA. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/2100Z 17.3N 158.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.4N 160.0W    40 KT
  24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.8N 162.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.4N 165.2W    30 KT
  48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.9N 167.8W    30 KT
  72HR VT     18/1800Z 19.9N 173.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     19/1800Z 20.3N 178.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     20/1800Z 20.6N 177.0E    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD/CRAIG