058
WTPA42 PHFO 131530
TCDCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP. DESPITE HINTS THAT THE
HURRICANE MIGHT MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES...AND THAT
IT WOULD EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IT
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND SAB WERE 6.0...WHILE HFO REPORTED 5.5. THE
ADT AT 1200 UTC IS 6.2...WHICH SUGGESTS A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED OF 120 KT.
THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ACCELERATED THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST...INTENSITY AND RADII...THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE BIG ISLAND LATER
TODAY. THIS MAY TAKE THE FORM OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IF THE
PRESENT TRACK FORECAST APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING. AT THE MOMENT...THE
ISLANDS FROM MAUI COUNTY TO KAUAI COUNTY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE
ANY TYPES OF WATCHES. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION OF THE
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH MIGHT RESULT IN WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...FOR
ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.9N 149.5W 120 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 153.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 155.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.3N 157.8W 100 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 19.7N 161.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 20.9N 165.2W 70 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 22.2N 170.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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