635 
 WTNT41 KNHC 160848
 TCDAT1
 
 Tropical Depression Florence Discussion Number  68
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018
 
 Surface observations indicate that there are no longer any
 sustained tropical-storm-force winds as the center of Florence has
 moved farther inland over South Carolina.  Therefore, the system is
 being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time.  Maximum
 winds are estimated to be 30 kt.  Continued gradual weakening is
 likely, and the numerical guidance suggests that the cyclone
 will be disorganized enough to become a remnant low in 36 hours or
 so.  In 72 hours, global models indicate that the system will
 become an extratropical cyclone, with some strengthening due to
 baroclinic processes as it moves over the Atlantic in 3-5 days.
 This scenario is very similar to that from the previous advisory.
 
 The forward speed of Florence has increased somewhat early this
 morning and the motion is now near 280/7 kt.  The high pressure
 system that has been blocking the forward progress of Florence is
 predicted to slide eastward and southeastward during the next day
 or so.  As a result, over the next couple of days, Florence is
 expected to move northwestward, northward, and then
 north-northeastward around the periphery of the high.  Later in the
 forecast period, Florence should accelerate east-northeastward in
 the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is similar
 to the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.
 
 This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
 Center on Florence.  Future information on Florence can be found in
 Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
 at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH,
 and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
 
 
 Key Messages:
 
 1.  Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
 significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
 and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina
 into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through
 early this week, as Florence continues to move slowly inland.  In
 addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also
 possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central
 Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.
 
 2. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
 and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
 resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0900Z 33.8N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  12H  16/1800Z 34.7N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  24H  17/0600Z 36.7N  83.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  36H  17/1800Z 38.7N  82.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/0600Z 39.8N  79.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/0600Z 42.0N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  20/0600Z 43.5N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  21/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch