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 541 
 WTNT41 KNHC 031443
 TCDAT1
 
 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018
 
 While Florence's structure improved overnight, the cloud tops have
 warmed and the deep convection has thinned during the past several
 hours. The 12Z satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt,
 but given recent trends the initial intensity is set at the low end
 of that range at 55 kt, although this is quite uncertain given the
 recent fluctuations in the cloud pattern.
 
 UW-CIMSS satellite diagnostics indicate that around 20 kt of
 southwesterly shear is affecting Florence, while the SHIPS analysis
 based on the GFS fields shows only about 10 kt. SSTs warm from this
 point forward along the forecast track, but shear is expected to
 be steady or strengthen, and the mid-level relative humidity values
 decrease to around 50 percent during the next 48 to 72 hours. Given
 these mixed factors, the NHC intensity forecast shows some
 possibility for strengthening in the next 12 hours, followed by a
 slow decay through 72 hours. Some restrengthening is forecast late
 in the period as SSTs warm above 28C and the atmospheric moisture
 increases. The NHC forecast is close to or a bit above the latest
 IVCN consensus aid and about 5 kt above the previous NHC forecast
 through 96 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 285/14. Florence will be steered
 generally west-northwestward for the next 72 hours by the Atlantic
 subtropical ridge, followed by a northwestward turn at days 4 and 5.
 While there is large spread in the guidance between the HWRF on the
 right and the UKMET on the left, the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensemble
 means are more tightly clustered near the middle of the guidance
 envelope. Since the overall track forecast reasoning has not
 changed, the new NHC forecast remains near the middle of the
 guidance. This forecast is a bit north of the previous NHC track
 given the initial position and lies a little south of the consensus
 aids to reflect less influence of the outlier HWRF model to the
 north.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 18.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 18.6N  40.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 19.1N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 19.9N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 20.8N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 23.0N  52.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 25.0N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 27.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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