741 
 WTNT41 KNHC 030235
 TCDAT1
 
 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018
 
 Florence has generally changed little during the past several
 hours.  The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast
 feature with the low-level center estimated to be closer to the
 southern side of the convection.  All of the satellite intensity
 estimates have held steady and support maintaining the wind speed
 at 45 kt.
 
 Although Florence is located in an environment of relatively low
 wind shear, the SSTs beneath the cyclone are cool, around 26 deg C.
 The tropical storm is expected to move over gradually warmer waters
 beginning in about 24 hours, but it will also be moving into an
 environment of higher shear.  These mixed signals suggest that
 Florence will likely change little in intensity or weaken
 slightly during the next few days.  By the end of the forecast
 period, however, the shear is expected to lessen and by then
 Florence should be over much warmer waters.  Therefore,
 strengthening seems likely in the 4 to 5 day time period.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to come
 into better agreement with the latest guidance.
 
 Florence is moving west-northwestward at 15 kt steered by a
 mid-level ridge to its northeast.  Although the track models all
 show a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during
 the next several days, the north-south spread becomes fairly large
 by the end of the forecast period.  This spread appears to be
 primarily associated with differences on how strong or vertically
 coherent each model predicts Florence to be.  Since the NHC forecast
 shows the storm changing little in strength for the next few days,
 this track prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope
 close to the various consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 17.9N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 18.3N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 18.7N  40.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 19.2N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 19.8N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 21.5N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 23.6N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 25.5N  56.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi