081 
 WTNT41 KNHC 010856
 TCDAT1
 
 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
 500 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018
 
 A recent SSMIS microwave pass has revealed that the cyclone has
 become much better organized with more pronounced convective
 banding.  Satellite intensity estimates are wide ranging, spanning
 from T1.5/25 kt from SAB to T3.4/53 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Since
 the numbers overall have increased, and the structure has improved,
 the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, in closest agreement to
 the TAFB estimate, but this could be conservative.  This makes the
 depression Tropical Storm Florence, the sixth named storm of the
 season.
 
 Florence is moving west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt, and should
 maintain this motion for the next 48 hours while traveling along the
 southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  After 48 hours, the
 storm is expected to reach a break in the ridge, causing it to slow
 down and turn northwestward by day 5.  The biggest change noted
 among the track models on this cycle was a westward shift in the
 overall guidance envelope.  The European model, in particular, swung
 significantly to the left, showing a weaker Florence not feeling the
 break in the ridge quite as much.  I'd like to see this trend
 continue before making a significant change to the forecast, so for
 now the updated NHC track prediction is only nudged westward. That
 said, the models appear to be trending away from a definitive
 recurvature scenario.
 
 The environment is mixed with positives and negatives for Florence's
 strengthening.  For the first 3 days, vertical shear over Florence
 should be quite low, but the cyclone will also be moving through a
 less-than-ideal thermodynamic environment with marginal sea surface
 temperatures and decreasing mid-level moisture.  After 3 days, the
 thermodynamic environment should begin to improve, but then the
 shear is forecast to strengthen. These conflicting signals point to
 only gradual strengthening, and the suite of intensity models aren't
 too far off from one another, nor from the previous NHC forecast.
 For that reason, no significant changes were made in this forecast
 package.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z 14.5N  26.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 15.0N  28.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 15.7N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 16.4N  33.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 17.1N  36.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 18.7N  41.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 21.0N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 23.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg