503 
 WTNT41 KNHC 010241
 TCDAT1
 
 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018
 
 Convection associated with the depression is becoming more
 concentrated, although the center still appears to be near the
 eastern edge of the convective mass.  The latest satellite
 intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 and 25 kt repsectively,
 while the CIMSS satellite consensus method suggests the cyclone has
 become a tropical storm.  Based on the available data, the initial
 intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt.  The depression is
 feeling the effects of moderate easterly vertical wind shear, with
 little or no cirrus outflow in the eastern semicircle.
 
 The initial motion is now 285/12.  Deep layer easterly or east-
 southeasterly flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge should
 steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward across the open
 Atlantic ocean for the next 3-4 days.  After that time, the cyclone
 is expected to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the
 subtropical ridge.  The track guidance remains in good agreement
 with this scenario, although there remains some spread on how
 sharp the turn will be near the end of the forecast period.  The
 new forecast track, which is an update of the previous forecast, is
 near the various consensus models.
 
 While the current shear is expected to subside during the next day
 or so, the forecast track takes the cyclone over waters that cool
 to near 26C in about 48 h.  The intensity forecast thus calls for
 only gradual intensification through this time.  After 48-72 h, the
 system should move over warmer water, but also should encounter
 increasing westerly shear.  The intensity guidance responds to this
 combination of ingredients by showing little change in strength.
 The new intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the previous
 forecast, is in the stronger portion of the inetnsity guidance and
 above the forecasts of the consensus models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0300Z 14.2N  25.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/1200Z 14.7N  27.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  02/0000Z 15.5N  29.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  02/1200Z 16.3N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  03/0000Z 17.0N  35.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  04/0000Z 18.5N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  05/0000Z 20.5N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  06/0000Z 23.0N  47.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven