444 
 WTNT41 KNHC 120848
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
 
 FLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/17. TRACK
 GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
 IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS
 IN THE EARLY TO MID STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CLOUD
 SHIELD HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICALLY DISPLACED NORTHWARD OF THE
 CENTER...DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
 PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE HAS ERODED MOST OF THE INNER CORE DEEP
 CONVECTION...AND FRONTAL-LIKE FEATURES ARE STARTING TO FORM.
 ADDITIONALLY...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE
 OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING.  THE ONLY THING
 KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL IS A SMALL AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
 AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION
 OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
 65 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION WILL NOT BE COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. 
 HOWEVER...IF WHAT LITTLE REMAINS OF THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES
 TO DISSIPATE...TRANSITION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER.  
  
 GIVEN THE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BAROTROPIC FORCING
 APPEARS TO BE WANING.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL
 MODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPSTREAM
 MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO
 PRODUCE BAROCLINIC FORCING AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON THE LARGER
 SCALE EVEN AS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND WINDS DECAY.
 ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
 INTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREAFTER...THE
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY A SYSTEM TO
 THE NORTH BY DAY 5. 
 
 THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A HIGH CENTERED OVER
 SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
 ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE
 CANADIAN MARITIMES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH
 AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
 ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR
 THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/0900Z 37.2N  62.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     12/1800Z 39.4N  60.5W    60 KT
  24HR VT     13/0600Z 42.7N  57.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     13/1800Z 45.7N  53.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     14/0600Z 47.6N  48.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     15/0600Z 49.5N  33.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     16/0600Z 53.0N  17.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN