Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 482 
 WTNT41 KNHC 102046
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006
  
 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FLORENCE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY
 SINCE THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
 REPORTED ONLY A 1-2 MB DECREASE IN THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM
 12 HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...THEY FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 96
 KT...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT.  THE QUESTION
 REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THESE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE.
 DROPSONDE DATA THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT THE REDUCTION FACTOR IS
 BETWEEN 80 AND 85 PERCENT FROM THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...A
 LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT.
  
 THE INNER CORE IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
 RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED
 EYEWALL.  NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
 ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...LIKELY TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE
 THE CENTER NEARS BERMUDA IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...
 INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
 WEAKENING FLORENCE.  THE HURRICANE IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
 VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY
 GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT IS LITTLE
 SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODELS
 SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...WITH THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF
 DEPICTING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND.  OUT OF
 RESPECT FOR THESE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS
 ADJUSTED WESTWARD...A LITTLE CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE GFS AND
 UKMET REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE
 GFS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BUT IS
 MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AT DAYS 4
 AND 5...THERE IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THOSE
 TIME RANGES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/2100Z 29.9N  66.2W    80 KT
  12HR VT     11/0600Z 31.3N  66.1W    90 KT
  24HR VT     11/1800Z 33.6N  65.1W    95 KT
  36HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  63.6W    90 KT
  48HR VT     12/1800Z 38.6N  61.6W    80 KT
  72HR VT     13/1800Z 45.0N  55.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     14/1800Z 48.0N  45.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     15/1800Z 48.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for FLORENCE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman